Now, I don't have any knowledge one way or the other as to whether the two companies are even talking about a sale (I certainly haven't heard anything concrete about a deal beyond what Eldar Murtazin published the other day), however there's no doubt that a merger between the two companies would be one of the biggest things to ever happen in mobile.
But would it be a good idea? Is there a reason for why Microsoft would buy Nokia when they've already convinced them to adopt Windows Phone as its smartphone OS? I mean, why spend tens of billions of dollars to buy a company that is already committed to using your product? It'd be a bit like Microsoft buying Dell and HP just to keep them using Windows.Acer aspire 5520 Battery, Asus a32-f3 battery
The only reason I can really think of to do a deal like this would be if Microsoft feels as if the only way to succeed in mobile would be to have much more control over everything and actually be in the handset business directly. Just look at what Apple has been able to do with its more closed approach -- not to mention what Microsoft's own Xbox division has been able to accomplish by entering the hardware business. Would it really surprise anyone if Microsoft came to the conclusion that there is simply too much at stake here for them to continue with its current direction and that they need to take matters entirely into their own hands? (Note that this is basically the choice that HP has made by buying Palm.) For one thing, the success of Android has boxed them in strategically and is making it difficult for Microsoft to replicate with Windows Phone the success it's had in the PC market (where Windows dominates and is the platform that virtually everyone that isn't Apple uses).
Microsoft knows that it absolutely cannot lose in mobile. This is quite literally an existential challenge for them and right now they are not winning. Almost all of the energy and momentum around tablets is with Apple and Google right now, and, while Windows Phone is in itself impressive and has decent manufacturer and carrier support, adoption rates have been disappointing (Gartner says they only sold about 1.6 million handsets running WP7 in Q1) and it's clear that the OS was really hurt by coming to market so late (though, obviously, better late than never).
Getting Nokia to adopt Windows Phone was a huge win for Microsoft since it guarantees a big boost in the userbase, but I wouldn't be surprised if there wasn't at least some discussion internally about killing those OEM licenses and taking a more Apple-like, end-to-end approach to things. They could certainly just develop and market a Microsoft phone -- Microsoft has a pretty good track record when it comes to doing its own hardware -- but I don't think they have the time anymore. Doing Acer aspire 6935g Batteries, Apple a1189 Batteries so would take too long to get to any meaningful kind of scale. Buying Nokia wouldn't just be a shortcut to all that. They'd instantly become the biggest seller of phones in the world; combining all of that with Microsoft's acquisition of Skype would create a mobile powerhouse.
Would it be worth the expense and hassle? I honestly don't know. The challenges of combining the two companies would be considerable (the culture clash will be enormous), even if Nokia stays largely independent, and it might be difficult for Microsoft to have a significant enough impact on Nokia's product development for it to make much difference (at least over what Nokia and Microsoft will do under their current partnernship). It could also be that, no matter who owns Nokia, Windows Phone just never gets enough traction in the marketplace. Buying Nokia and severing those relationships with existing Windows Phone OEMs might turn out to be a mistake if those same OEMs sour on Android and are looking for another horse to bet on. And Nokia hasn't exactly been killing it lately. They're still the biggest, but momentum has clearly shifted away from them and it's not guaranteed that it will ever come back. We could be witnessing the company's irreversible decline, which would make buying them a mistake that could very well prove fatal for Microsoft.
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